trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 83¢ | 92¢ | $405 | $451 | +$46 (+11%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 55¢ | 68¢ | $110 | $138 | +$28 (+25%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? | Jun 04 | $51 | −$1 | -2% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Apr 06 | $10 | +$1 | +13% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Apr 01 | $100 | +$7 | +7% |
| US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | Feb 23 | $10 | +$1 | +10% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Jan 30 | $20 | +$5 | +25% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Jan 30 | $60 | −$10 | -16% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Jan 07 | $20 | +$13 | +67% |
| Will Ole Gunnar Solskjær be appointed as manager of Manchester United? | Jan 07 | $11 | +$1 | +7% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 11 | $100 | +$8 | +8% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? | Dec 01 | $50 | +$4 | +9% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? | Nov 14 | $20 | +$7 | +38% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? | Oct 28 | $74 | +$9 | +12% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | -1.8% | -11.1% | 0% | 0% | -11.1% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +6.0% | -4.1% | 67% | 33% | -5.3% |
| all | 12 | +14.6% | +3.7% | 83% | 42% | -1.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +3.7% | 42% | -1.6% |
| 10% | -6.2% | 25% | -11.0% |
| 15% | -15.3% | 17% | -19.6% |
| 20% | -23.6% | 8% | -27.5% |