Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:10:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5F 0x5fb3…88c1 sports 1336 markets active 1h ago coverage 200d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 199d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,002 (-13%) realized −$8,997 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%633W / 711L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$345est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$385now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,828
7 days−$2,465
14 days−$1,953
30 days−$2,409
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$6,655
other 5% −$14
culture 0% −$144
world 0% −$10
economics 0% −$6
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -22.9% -30.2% 42% 42% -45.7%
≤30d 281 -10.9% -19.4% 49% 49% -24.8%
≤90d 720 -22.8% -30.2% 46% 45% -25.7%
all 1344 -17.4% -25.2% 47% 46% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 46% -21.1%
10% -32.4% 44% -28.7%
15% -38.9% 40% -35.6%
20% -44.9% 33% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$44 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$385
Realized−$8,997
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses633 / 711
Est. fees paid−$345
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1344 / 1336
History coverage200d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1344 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Over 58¢ 64¢ $66 $72 +$7 (+10%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $39 $63 +$24 (+63%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Athletics 58¢ 84¢ $43 $62 +$19 (+44%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Over 62¢ 74¢ $43 $52 +$8 (+19%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 61¢ 50¢ $61 $50 −$10 (-17%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 60¢ 48¢ $42 $33 −$9 (-21%)
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+7%)
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+7%)
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-39%)
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 55¢ 1¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 487 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Western Michigan (-9.5) Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Knicks vs. Magic: O/U 230.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 230.5 Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Cardinals vs. Cowboys Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Ravens vs. Dolphins Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Saints vs. Panthers Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Jets vs. Ravens: O/U 44.5 Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Colts vs. Chiefs Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 238.5 Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
76ers vs. Nets: O/U 221.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Eagles vs. Cowboys: O/U 47.5 Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5 Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5 Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Eagles vs. Cowboys Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Panthers vs. Packers Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Steelers vs. Bengals Jun 17 $10 −$15 -146%
Bulls vs. Pelicans: O/U 245.5 Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Spread: Bowling (-14.5) Jun 17 $117 −$117 -100%
Spread: Eagles (-6.5) Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Rockets vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5 Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Hornets vs. Pacers: O/U 238.5 Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Steelers vs. Bears: O/U 47.5 Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Panthers vs. 49ers Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Bills vs. Texans Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5 Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5 Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
O/U 50.5 Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
49ers vs. Texans Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Chiefs vs. Cowboys: O/U 53.5 Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Commanders vs. Dolphins: O/U 46.5 Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $51 +$39 +76%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $43 +$27 +65%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $43 +$27 +65%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 Jun 17 $18 −$17 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 +$34 +109%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $33 +$27 +83%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $32 +$28 +90%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $38 +$32 +86%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $34 +$26 +76%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $41 −$20 -49%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $47 +$35 +74%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $69 +$41 +58%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $22 +$82 +376%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $36 +$24 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $27 −$26 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $27 +$23 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $18 −$17 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $29 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 58¢ $43 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 BUY Under 17¢ $5 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 BUY Under 17¢ $12 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 62¢ $44 3h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 60¢ $43 3h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 63¢ $45 3h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $39 3h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $62 4h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $51 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $38 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $43 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $33 7h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $32 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $43 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $31 16h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 32¢ $21 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $34 25h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $6 31h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 61¢ $41 31h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $38 35h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $42 35h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $11 45h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $11 45h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 16¢ $8 46h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 13¢ $1 46h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 13¢ $6 46h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $6 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $38 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $385.48 · official $385.51 (match) · 3500 history records