Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:18:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5F 0x5faf…1183 sports 178 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 115d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$21,956 (-4%) realized −$22,207 · open +$251
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%47W / 120L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,506per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Fees−$8,232est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$21,571now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 116d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$28,946
other 14% −$11,580
crypto 5% −$6,631
world 1% −$6,633
culture 0% −$1,118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -27.0% -33.9% 23% 23% -25.2%
≤30d 111 -19.2% -26.9% 27% 27% -18.4%
≤90d 146 -16.6% -24.5% 29% 29% -16.3%
all 167 -18.6% -26.4% 28% 28% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.4% 28% -17.8%
10% -33.4% 28% -25.7%
15% ← realistic here -39.8% 28% -32.9%
20% -45.7% 26% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$5,100) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7,023 vs −$3,210 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$21,571
Realized−$22,207
Unrealized+$251
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses47 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$8,232
Open positions12
Markets (closed)167 / 178
History coverage116d ⚠
Avg bet$3,506
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 44¢ 72¢ $6,545 $10,740 +$4,195 (+64%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands 49¢ 30¢ $4,900 $2,950 −$1,950 (-40%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 Over 45¢ 43¢ $2,700 $2,580 −$120 (-4%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Over 47¢ 80¢ $940 $1,590 +$650 (+69%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 23¢ 30¢ $1,150 $1,500 +$350 (+30%)
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Netherlands 29¢ 10¢ $2,900 $950 −$1,950 (-67%)
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Japan 10¢ 6¢ $1,000 $645 −$355 (-36%)
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $246 $200 −$46 (-19%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $589 $190 −$399 (-68%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $245 $184 −$61 (-25%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 18¢ 98¢ $5 $27 +$22 (+446%)
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Netherlands 16¢ 2¢ $100 $15 −$85 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $718 +$4,282 +596%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3,689 +$16,311 +442%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5,084 +$7,916 +156%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $6,667 +$3,333 +50%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Jun 25 $480 −$480 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $508 −$508 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $4,775 −$4,775 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 25 $5,049 −$5,049 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4,139 −$4,139 -100%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $718 −$700 -98%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $2,187 −$2,150 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $2,137 −$2,100 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $1,075 −$1,050 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $500 −$500 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $4,437 +$5,563 +125%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $5,574 +$4,426 +79%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $308 −$308 -100%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 24 $2,860 −$2,860 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $6,126 −$6,126 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $2,164 +$988 +46%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $3,045 +$2,955 +97%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $6,750 +$8,250 +122%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,107 −$1,107 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 24 $575 −$575 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,232 −$1,232 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $514 −$514 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5,550 −$5,550 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 24 $5,957 −$5,957 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $6,400 −$6,400 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Ghana? Jun 24 $982 −$982 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,045 +$4,955 +474%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $3,600 +$6,399 +178%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,262 −$2,262 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,066 −$1,066 -100%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $862 −$862 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $565 −$565 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,020 −$2,020 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $220 −$220 -100%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 23 $11,914 −$11,914 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 23 $3,505 −$3,505 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $1,900 −$1,900 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 23 $2,176 −$2,176 -100%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 23 $232 −$232 -100%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $190 −$190 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 23 $7,472 −$7,472 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 42¢ $2,142 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2,745 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $955 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) BUY Netherlands 16¢ $103 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 29¢ $2,900 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $4,975 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 10¢ $1,027 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 23¢ $1,177 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $4,514 2h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 14¢ $718 5h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 43¢ $2,187 5h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2,137 5h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $1,075 5h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $492 5h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $7 5h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $1 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 38¢ $3,911 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 38¢ $1,173 5h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 66¢ $6,667 5h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 14¢ $718 11h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 18¢ $3,689 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 27¢ $4,139 26h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $508 26h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2,164 26h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $36 26h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 35¢ $508 26h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 35¢ $477 26h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 35¢ $3 26h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 35¢ $1 26h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 35¢ $54 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,570.86 · official $12,938.36 · 3500 history records