Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:14:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fad…f562 politics 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%9W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$5
sports 29% −$2
other 14% −$2
culture 5% −$1
economics 5% $0
crypto 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 75 -9.0% -17.6% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -25.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -32.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -39.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses9 / 66
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage276d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 83¢ 83¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 27 $73 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 22 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 10 $71 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 07 $74 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 30 $148 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 26? Jan 28 $72 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 26 $2 $0 -14%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $76 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 21 $1 $0 -16%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 21 $74 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $1 $0 -17%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $78 $0 +0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 17 $76 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 16 $2 $0 -11%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $74 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 14 $74 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $1 $0 -14%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $74 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 09 $78 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 07 $77 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 05 $1 $0 -40%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 05 $76 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 04 $154 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 02 $79 $0 -0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 01 $78 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 28 $77 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 26 $77 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 24 $78 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 22 $79 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 20 $81 $0 -1%
Will António Filipe win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 20 $78 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 19 $2 $0 -14%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 15 $80 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Dec 14 $77 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 11 $83 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 11 $76 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 08 $76 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 07 $79 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 06 $161 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 06 $1 $0 -17%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 01 $80 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Nov 29 $77 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 29 $1 $0 -20%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 28 $79 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $70 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $72 10d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $73 20d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $73 118d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $73 120d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $71 122d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $72 125d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $71 134d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $71 135d
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 138d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $74 138d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 144d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $71 145d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $71 147d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 1¢ $2 148d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $0 149d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 26? BUY No 100¢ $72 150d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $1 150d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY Yes 1¢ $2 151d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $75 151d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $76 151d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $73 152d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 153d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 154d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $74 154d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $74 155d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 155d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 156d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $74 156d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $74 156d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.76 · official $69.76 (match) · 249 history records