Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:26:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5F 0x5fa8…dc88 world 32 markets active 2d ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate88%28W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$9
other 15% +$7
economics 10% −$9
finance 3% +$2
tech 2% +$1
weather 2% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 8 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 18 -10.4% -18.9% 89% 0% -12.8%
all 32 -11.0% -19.5% 88% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 3% -9.4%
10% -27.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -34.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -40.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$30 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses28 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage147d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $108 +$1 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 02 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 23? May 24 $108 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 19 $107 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 17 $106 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 13 $103 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 04 $102 +$1 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 04 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 21 $396 +$7 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 20 $394 +$2 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 17 $385 +$9 +2%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $300 +$5 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 07 $365 +$16 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 03 $357 +$7 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Mar 01 $352 +$5 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 26 $346 +$6 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 24 $342 +$4 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 21 $336 +$7 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 19 $329 +$6 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 14 $323 +$7 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? Feb 10 $4 −$4 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 07 $300 +$5 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? Feb 02 $289 +$32 +11%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $290 −$10 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $108 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 99¢ $105 5d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $100 5d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $100 12d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 15d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 99¢ $108 24d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 23? SELL No 100¢ $108 24d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $108 26d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 29d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $107 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $106 35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $103 40d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 44d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $102 64d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 99¢ $101 74d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 77d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $99 84d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 85d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $396 89d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $394 92d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 98¢ $385 97d
US forces enter Iran by March 7? BUY No 98¢ $300 102d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? BUY No 96¢ $365 106d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? BUY No 98¢ $357 108d
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $352 111d
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $346 113d
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $342 116d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $336 118d
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $329 123d
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $323 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records