Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:23:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fa6…f1d3 world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 330d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%18W / 27L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$6
other 20% $0
politics 16% +$1
sports 5% $0
crypto 5% −$1
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.8% -10.2% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 15 -6.1% -15.1% 40% 7% -8.5%
≤90d 15 -6.1% -15.1% 40% 7% -8.5%
all 45 -3.0% -12.2% 40% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 2% -9.0%
10% -20.6% 0% -17.7%
15% -28.3% 0% -25.7%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

330d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses18 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage330d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $73 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $9 −$1 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $73 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $71 +$2 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $71 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $63 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $26 +$4 +17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $52 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $76 +$2 +3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 -8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $60 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Dec 19 $5 $0 +3%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $68 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 23 $3 −$1 -41%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $7 $0 +5%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Aug 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $68 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 01 $15 $0 +0%
Israel strikes Iran before August? Jul 31 $27 $0 +0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 31 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $67 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by July 31? Jul 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Jul 30 $7 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 29 $1 $0 -12%
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference? Jul 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Jul 29 $68 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 28 $58 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 28 $38 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? Jul 28 $6 $0 +1%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 28 $68 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $68 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $15 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $28 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $24 4h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $73 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $73 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $37 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $36 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $11 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $60 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $61 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $62 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $21 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $29 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $22 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $4 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $67 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $36 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $40 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $76 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $33 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $24 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.30 · official $0.00 · 298 history records