Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:24:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fa4…98a0 politics 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,268 (-2%) realized −$2,268 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate22%27W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$752per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$16
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$51
other 35% −$81
sports 14% −$2,123
world 2% −$13
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$4
tech 1% +$1
culture 1% −$1
finance 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 68 -21.4% -28.9% 10% 1% -13.1%
all 123 -8.8% -17.4% 22% 7% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 7% -11.7%
10% -25.3% 7% -20.2%
15% -32.6% 6% -27.9%
20% -39.2% 2% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,191) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$26 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$1,109
Realized−$2,268
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses27 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)123 / 125
History coverage144d
Avg bet$752
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $688 $689 +$0 (+0%)
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $421 $420 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,197 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,075 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,194 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 12 $2,015 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,077 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,784 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,208 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,272 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,153 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,325 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,086 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $304 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? Jun 02 $536 $0 +0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,994 −$3 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $878 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,833 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $701 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $1,337 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,237 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,332 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,992 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 01 $288 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 01 $394 +$1 +0%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr May 01 $429 +$1 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $335 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $361 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $674 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $5,532 −$6 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,812 −$2 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $1,203 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,116 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $2,586 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $997 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $113 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $131 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $788 −$1 -0%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 05 $37 −$9 -25%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 05 $541 −$541 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 02 $32 $0 +1%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mar 24 $52 +$40 +75%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $935 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 23 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 23 $435 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $421 1h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $688 21h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,196 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,197 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,073 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,075 5d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,192 5d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,194 5d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,182 5d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,184 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,114 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,116 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,181 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,182 7d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,206 10d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,208 10d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $813 11d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $814 11d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,271 14d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,272 14d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,151 14d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,153 14d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,323 14d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,325 15d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,085 15d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,086 15d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $517 17d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $518 17d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $648 21d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $649 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,109.07 · official $1,109.07 (match) · 390 history records