Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:13:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5F 0x5fa3…a3ed other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$191 (-40%) realized −$191 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$103
sports 19% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-74.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -71.8% -74.5% 20% 20% -50.5%
≤90d 5 -71.8% -74.5% 20% 20% -50.5%
all 5 -71.8% -74.5% 20% 20% -50.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -74.5% 20% -50.5%
10% -76.9% 20% -55.2%
15% -79.2% 20% -59.5%
20% -81.2% 0% -63.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -72% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$65 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$191
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage12d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $174 −$171 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $60 −$58 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $166 +$68 +41%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $27 −$26 -97%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $49 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $174 8d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $60 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $166 10d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 20¢ $27 12d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY BIG 3¢ $6 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.82 · official $47.82 (match) · 7 history records