Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:44:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5F
0x5fa3…ea8d
sports · 500 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$1,919 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,918 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$122
Realized−$1,918
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses211 / 281
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions8
Markets (closed)492 / 500
History coverage306d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 8 History 492 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$187
14 days+$189
30 days+$229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 58¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+30%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Türkiye 32¢ 32¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Scotland 39¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 4¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-74%)
Amen Thompson: Points O/U 18.5 Yes 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5 Over 28¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
AS Monaco FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 Under 35¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Pedri: Anytime Goalscorer Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Who will finish higher: Pérez or Bottas? Bottas 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Hornets Hornets 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Celtics vs. 76ers 76ers 37¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Jazz Jazz 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Wizards Wizards 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Athletic Club (-1.5) Athletic Club 19¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Magic vs. Pistons Magic 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Knicks 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer Yes 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Under 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Levante UD vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$7 +140%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals Jun 11 $2 +$6 +276%
Roberto Alvarado: 1+ goals Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $16 +$13 +83%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $10 +$8 +79%
OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $6 +$9 +146%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 08 $11 −$11 -98%
OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $11 −$11 -99%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 08 $11 −$11 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $21 −$21 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $72 +$201 +280%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $10 +$20 +203%
Who will finish higher: Bortoleto or Hulkenberg? Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $3 +$6 +197%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Who will finish higher: Norris or Piastri? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Who will finish higher: Norris or Hamilton? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $4 +$8 +197%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 06 $3 +$3 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $3 +$5 +165%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 04 $5 +$5 +101%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 31 $10 +$10 +103%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 31 $29 −$29 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $23 −$23 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 11.5 Total Corners May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 29 $51 +$31 +60%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $5 +$21 +426%
Who will finish higher: Ocon or Bearman? May 25 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 24 $1 +$2 +225%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5 May 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $4 +$11 +274%
Who will finish higher: Norris or Piastri? May 24 $2 +$3 +145%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand May 24 $2 +$5 +262%
Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Russell? May 24 $3 +$18 +570%
Will Mclaren Mastercard achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Canadia May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 May 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 35% −$57
world 35% −$1,786
other 23% +$133
crypto 7% −$158
politics 0% −$50
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $2 1h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 32¢ $3 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $3 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 6h
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 35h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $3 35h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $2 35h
Roberto Alvarado: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $5 2d
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 BUY Yes 49¢ $5 3d
OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 1.5 BUY Yes 56¢ $5 3d
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 55¢ $10 3d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 BUY Yes 50¢ $5 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $16 3d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 4d
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 4d
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 BUY Yes 40¢ $6 5d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 BUY Yes 50¢ $11 5d
OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 1.5 BUY Yes 55¢ $11 5d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 BUY Yes 52¢ $11 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $21 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $232 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 50¢ $41 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $30 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +0.4% -9.2% 40% 36% +67.1%
≤30d 58 +30.1% +17.7% 47% 45% +37.4%
≤90d 183 -7.7% -16.5% 38% 38% -3.6%
all 492 -10.0% -18.6% 43% 41% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 41% -24.4%
10% -26.3% 39% -31.6%
15% -33.5% 33% -38.2%
20% -40.0% 29% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.87 · official $121.87 (match) · 929 history records