Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:09:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fa2…94e5 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$23 (-16%) realized −$16 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$24
sports 30% +$2
crypto 7% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -9.4% -18.0% 43% 36% -28.3%
≤30d 14 -9.4% -18.0% 43% 36% -28.3%
≤90d 14 -9.4% -18.0% 43% 36% -28.3%
all 14 -9.4% -18.0% 43% 36% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 36% -28.3%
10% -25.9% 29% -35.2%
15% -33.0% 21% -41.4%
20% -39.6% 21% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 79¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +34%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$17 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $11 −$3 -31%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 13 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$10 -49%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$4 +197%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $19 +$17 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 17h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $4 36h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL No 99¢ $9 36h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $6 36h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 36h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL No 24¢ $2 37h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 38h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 38h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $6 38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 38h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 2¢ $0 38h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 40h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $6 40h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 40h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 40h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 41h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 41h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 47¢ $10 42h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $1 42h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 18¢ $7 42h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 48¢ $10 42h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 43h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 46¢ $10 43h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 43h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 43h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $2 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 40 history records