Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:12:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fa1…b91b weather 1735 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+0%) realized +$33 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%1675W / 7L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day50.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,005now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$9
14 days+$7
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 92% +$20
finance 4% +$1
tech 3% +$3
other 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 773 -0.0% -9.6% 99% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 1565 -0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 1682 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 1682 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.64 per $1 lost it wins $2.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$1,005
Realized+$33
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1675 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions53
Markets (closed)1682 / 1735
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day50.5
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 53 History 1682 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 15? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $355 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $370 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $235 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 15? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $350 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $305 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 15? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 15? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 15? Jun 15 $139 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $285 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 2m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 2m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 15m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $9 15m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $8 17m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 37m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 51m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 53m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 58m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $14 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,005.45 · official $1,005.47 (match) · 3500 history records