Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:14:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5F 0x5fa0…d7c9 crypto 364 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d only
✗ bot/MM pace (332 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$682 (-10%) realized −$643 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate35%131W / 242L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day332.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$268
7 days−$268
14 days−$676
30 days−$676
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$627
other 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (332 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 -31.0% -37.6% 30% 13% -18.3%
≤30d 373 -5.0% -14.0% 35% 20% -19.5%
≤90d 373 -5.0% -14.0% 35% 20% -19.5%
all 373 -5.0% -14.0% 35% 20% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover332.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 20% -19.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 14% -27.2%
15% -29.8% 12% -34.2%
20% -36.6% 8% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$643
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses131 / 242
Open positions7
Markets (closed)373 / 364
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day332.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 373 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 40¢ 100¢ $10 $25 +$15 (+150%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Up 65¢ 90¢ $16 $23 +$6 (+39%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Up 65¢ 96¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+49%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Down 57¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+75%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Down 26¢ 10¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-63%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$5 -9640%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$6 -23%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$1 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $38 −$23 -60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$4 -44%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$6 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $44 −$29 -66%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$11 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$4 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$22 -47%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$6 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$2 -16%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$7 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$5 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$19 +61%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -18%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -6%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$8 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$3 -18%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $0 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.47 · official $66.48 (match) · 3500 history records