trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran Play in the World Cup? | Jun 13 | $2 | −$2 | -95% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $1 | +$1 | +106% |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -75% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +12% |
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? | Jun 10 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? | Jun 10 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Jun 10 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $2 | +$7 | +324% |
| Kash Patel out by June 30? | Jun 01 | $1 | +$1 | +98% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $7 | +$9 | +134% |
| US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? | May 16 | $1 | −$1 | -88% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 16 | $10 | −$7 | -68% |
| Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 15, 2026? | May 16 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? | May 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026? | May 16 | $2 | $0 | +10% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? | May 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | May 02 | $6 | +$1 | +12% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | May 02 | $8 | +$2 | +28% |
| NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets | Apr 27 | $5 | −$4 | -82% |
| Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 14 to April | Apr 20 | $4 | −$2 | -57% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | -22.9% | -30.2% | 30% | 30% | -37.8% |
| ≤30d | 17 | -20.0% | -27.6% | 35% | 29% | -20.4% |
| ≤90d | 22 | -24.5% | -31.7% | 36% | 32% | -22.5% |
| all | 22 | -24.5% | -31.7% | 36% | 32% | -22.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -31.7% | 32% | -22.5% |
| 10% | -38.2% | 23% | -29.9% |
| 15% | -44.2% | 18% | -36.7% |
| 20% | -49.7% | 18% | -42.9% |