Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:19:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f9d…cf72 other 174 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-0%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate24%39W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$12
politics 13% −$3
tech 13% −$2
economics 9% −$1
world 7% −$2
finance 6% $0
sports 6% −$10
culture 5% −$3
crypto 4% +$2
weather 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 54 -0.6% -10.1% 26% 17% -10.1%
≤90d 162 -0.7% -10.1% 24% 17% -10.0%
all 162 -0.7% -10.1% 24% 17% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 17% -10.0%
10% -18.7% 12% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 8% -26.5%
20% -33.8% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses39 / 123
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)162 / 174
History coverage71d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch? No 98¢ 91¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-8%)
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? No 83¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 91¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No 72¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Turkish Constitutional Referendum announced in 2026? No 80¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Weed rescheduled by June 30? No 60¢ 99¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+65%)
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? Yes 77¢ 82¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 35¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
2026 Balance of Power: Other Jun 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? Jun 22 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $1 $0 +42%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Jun 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will Tom Doyle be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 09 $37 $0 -1%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $38 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 09 $40 $0 -1%
Will Jeff Gunter be the Republican nominee for NV-03? Jun 07 $80 $0 -0%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
JD Vance out as VP by June 15? Jun 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Mike Waltz as the next Director of National Intell Jun 05 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kash Patel as the next Director of National Intell Jun 04 $40 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Infinite (BO3) - Exort Series Playoffs Jun 04 $1 $0 +21%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison? Jun 04 $10 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 03 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 2? Jun 03 $41 −$1 -2%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for May 18 - May 24 be between Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will John Skipworth finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 02 $10 $0 -1%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will FW win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliame Jun 02 $40 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 -2%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? May 31 $7 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Imperial (BO5) - ESL Challenger League Sout May 31 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? May 31 $40 $0 -0%
Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch? May 29 $10 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? May 29 $2 $0 +20%
Valorant: Division One vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North Americ May 29 $2 +$1 +42%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 30? May 29 $41 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 30? May 29 $39 $0 -0%
Will Hong Kong have between 210-220mm of precipitation in May? May 29 $42 $0 -0%
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? May 28 $42 $0 -0%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 28 $1 $0 +34%
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University (BO5) - North American Challen May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 1000 to 1049 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026? May 28 $49 $0 -1%
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be between 5 and 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher w May 28 $51 $0 -0%
Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions w May 28 $48 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame May 28 $1 $0 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 44m
2026 Balance of Power: Other SELL No 99¢ $38 48m
2026 Balance of Power: Other BUY No 99¢ $38 48m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? SELL No 100¢ $40 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $40 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $40 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $40 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $1 8d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 99¢ $40 8d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 8d
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch? SELL No 96¢ $1 11d
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut SELL No 99¢ $37 11d
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut BUY No 99¢ $37 11d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 11d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 11d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? SELL No 100¢ $38 11d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 13d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? SELL No 99¢ $39 13d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? BUY No 100¢ $39 13d
Will Tom Doyle be the Republican nominee for NV-02? SELL No 99¢ $37 13d
Will Tom Doyle be the Republican nominee for NV-02? BUY No 100¢ $37 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 13d
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el SELL Yes 99¢ $40 13d
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el BUY Yes 99¢ $40 13d
Will Jeff Gunter be the Republican nominee for NV-03? SELL No 99¢ $40 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.06 · official $15.40 · 391 history records