Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:43:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f98…f801 politics 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%7W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$5
other 16% −$3
sports 13% −$2
culture 9% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 4% $0
economics 4% +$4
world 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -10.4% -18.9% 12% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -9.3% -17.9% 11% 0% -9.7%
all 62 -8.6% -17.3% 11% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -25.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -39.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses7 / 55
Open positions3
Markets (closed)62 / 65
History coverage234d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $109 $109 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+56%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $108 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $221 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -53%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $105 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 31 $1 $0 -30%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $220 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $110 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $109 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $230 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $2 $0 -20%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 05 $222 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $89 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 15 $1 $0 -50%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 15 $115 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 11 $113 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 09 $225 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $111 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 28 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 26 $1 $0 -33%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 26 $113 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $120 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $115 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 23 $116 $0 +0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 18 $115 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 16 $112 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 14 $114 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 11 $115 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 10 $116 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 07 $1 $0 -50%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $116 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 03 $118 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $207 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 31 $1 $0 -12%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 29 $115 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 27 $114 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 25 $115 $0 -0%
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend? Dec 23 $99 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 22 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $1 $0 -14%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $114 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 18 $226 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 15? Dec 15 $118 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Dec 14 $119 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $113 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 09 $113 $0 +0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 07 $1 $0 -50%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $1 $0 -37%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 04 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 30 $114 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $109 1h
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $108 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $108 6d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 10d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $107 10d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $107 12d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $105 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $107 19d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $107 21d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $1 22d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $110 22d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $110 24d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 27d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $109 27d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $109 28d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $114 38d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $114 103d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 105d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $108 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.38 · official $111.38 (match) · 322 history records