Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:24:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5F 0x5f97…fa52 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 205d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$136 (+17%) realized +$138 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$22
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% +$61
other 49% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +11.1% +0.5% 67% 33% -3.0%
≤30d 3 +11.1% +0.5% 67% 33% -3.0%
≤90d 7 +13.6% +2.8% 71% 57% +5.8%
all 9 +2.2% -7.5% 67% 56% +6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 56% +6.4%
10% -16.4% 33% -3.8%
15% -24.4% 11% -13.1%
20% -31.8% 0% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$3 · ×7.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.03 per $1 lost it wins $14.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$138
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage205d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $76 $74 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $62 −$2 -3%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $220 +$19 +8%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $18 +$5 +28%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? May 18 $33 +$4 +13%
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? May 18 $47 +$8 +18%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 13 $163 +$65 +40%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $29 −$2 -8%
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Feb 27 $131 +$33 +25%
Rachel Reeves out as Chancellor of the Exchequer by December 31? Nov 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $76 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $60 7h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 17h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? SELL No 88¢ $23 2d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 68¢ $18 3d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 91¢ $137 31d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 93¢ $25 31d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 93¢ $5 31d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 93¢ $53 31d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 39¢ $2 33d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 39¢ $15 33d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 39¢ $15 33d
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $43 34d
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $6 34d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 38¢ $2 34d
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 34d
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? SELL Yes 58¢ $4 34d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 37¢ $3 34d
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $47 34d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 31¢ $6 35d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 35¢ $24 36d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 35¢ $2 36d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $31 39d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? SELL Yes $11 39d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes $1 40d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes $9 40d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 40d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 40d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 40d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $93 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.00 · official $74.00 (match) · 36 history records