Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:15:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f8f…99b8 crypto 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,463 (-21%) realized −$422 · open −$1,041
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate65%71W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day25.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$699
14 days−$876
30 days−$876
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$884
world 22% −$1,027
economics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -13.7% -21.9% 63% 48% -25.7%
≤30d 110 -9.6% -18.2% 65% 46% -23.3%
≤90d 110 -9.6% -18.2% 65% 46% -23.3%
all 110 -9.6% -18.2% 65% 46% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 46% -23.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 27% -30.7%
15% -33.1% 17% -37.4%
20% -39.7% 15% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$46 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized−$422
Unrealized−$1,041
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses71 / 39
Open positions3
Markets (closed)110 / 113
History coverage13d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day25.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $1,182 $147 −$1,035 (-88%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $22 $16 −$6 (-28%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $171 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $46 +$13 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $302 −$302 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $255 +$87 +34%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $252 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $157 −$157 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $152 +$24 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $117 +$40 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $86 +$24 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$15 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $56 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $66 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$30 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$16 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$9 +178%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $152 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $153 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $26 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $25 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $25 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $25 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $25 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $25 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $173 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $171 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $43 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $19 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $100 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $63 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $362 31h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $21 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $19 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $150 33h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $5 36h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $2 36h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 36h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.49 · official $164.49 (match) · 419 history records