Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:45:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5F 0x5f8e…21b7 other 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,926 (+0%) realized +$7,132 · open −$2,206
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate46%29W / 34L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$9,985per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$41,638now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 93d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 68% +$166,730
politics 27% +$107
other 4% −$1,144
sports 1% +$421
crypto 0% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +28.9% +16.6% 100% 86% +4.6%
≤30d 25 +77.3% +60.4% 64% 36% -8.1%
≤90d 60 +47.0% +33.0% 48% 32% +3.8%
all 63 +43.2% +29.6% 46% 30% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.6% 30% +3.7%
10% +17.2% 22% -6.2%
15% ← realistic here +5.8% 19% -15.3%
20% -4.5% 17% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$2,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +45% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
26.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,086 vs −$257 · ×23.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×21.45 per $1 lost it wins $21.45
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$41,638
Realized+$7,132
Unrealized−$2,206
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses29 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions43
Markets (closed)63 / 106
History coverage93d ⚠
Avg bet$9,985
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the World Cup? No 88¢ 89¢ $6,651 $6,728 +$77 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6,867 $5,969 −$898 (-13%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $5,550 $5,509 −$41 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,861 $3,631 −$1,231 (-25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $2,607 $3,319 +$712 (+27%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 71¢ 80¢ $1,800 $2,042 +$242 (+13%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,556 $1,735 +$179 (+12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,665 $1,691 −$974 (-37%)
Will Norway win the World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $1,537 $1,550 +$13 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1,030 $1,155 +$124 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $1,288 $1,107 −$181 (-14%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? Yes 67¢ 80¢ $783 $944 +$162 (+21%)
Will Japan win the World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $726 $737 +$11 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $697 $696 −$1 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $692 $662 −$30 (-4%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $838 $603 −$236 (-28%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? No 95¢ 96¢ $572 $575 +$3 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 80¢ $543 $518 −$25 (-5%)
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $212 $424 +$212 (+100%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? No 98¢ 99¢ $375 $378 +$2 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $426 $372 −$54 (-13%)
Will Brazil win the World Cup? No 92¢ 94¢ $304 $310 +$7 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the World Cup? No 80¢ 82¢ $176 $180 +$4 (+2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $163 $146 −$17 (-10%)
Will France win the World Cup? No 80¢ 76¢ $124 $119 −$5 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $50 +$48 +96%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $445 +$176 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $524 +$97 +18%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $807 +$127 +16%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $870 +$64 +7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3,858 +$537 +14%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $475 +$51 +11%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $258,000 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $597 +$25 +4%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $574 +$48 +8%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $20,000 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 18 $249 +$301 +121%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) Jun 17 $107,014 +$895 +1%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J Jun 17 $12,753 +$295 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $185,637 +$1,104 +1%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $166,277 +$2,425 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 16 $798 −$741 -93%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $2,738 −$2,480 -91%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju Jun 16 $87,081 +$41,287 +47%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 14 $41 −$39 -95%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $100 −$95 -95%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO d Jun 14 $7 −$3 -47%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 09 $298 −$292 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 08 $101 +$239 +238%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $20 −$20 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $114 −$112 -98%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $104 −$102 -98%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 25-28, 2026? May 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026? May 01 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Jiri Lehecka win the 2026 men's singles tournament at the Miami O May 01 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 21-24, 2026? May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end before April 1, 2026? May 01 $577 −$11 -2%
Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 women's singles tournament at the Miami O May 01 $17 −$17 -100%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 me May 01 $17 −$14 -82%
Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting? May 01 $54 −$54 -100%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting? May 01 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti May 01 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division? May 01 $69 −$68 -99%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division? May 01 $74 −$73 -99%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division? May 01 $139 −$132 -95%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division? May 01 $127 −$126 -99%
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 28-31, 2026? May 01 $91 −$67 -74%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after April 2026 m May 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 01 $3,554 −$1,642 -46%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 01 $626 −$619 -99%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me May 01 $1,355 −$1,336 -99%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026? May 01 $14 +$116 +852%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting May 01 $513 +$57 +11%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr) Apr 30 $184 +$2,293 +1243%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $83 37m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $108 46m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $36 3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $912 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 50¢ $42 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 51¢ $8 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $46 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $17 4h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 5h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 5h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 5h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 5h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 5h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $40 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $30 7h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 7h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 7h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 7h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $77 7h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 8h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 8h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 8h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 8h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 9h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 9h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $48 9h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41,638.36 · official $41,867.55 (match) · 3500 history records