Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:59:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

5F 0x5f88…a907 crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 584d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$180 (-36%) realized −$177 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate36%8W / 14L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit65%portable

Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$24

7 days−$155

14 days−$155

30 days−$155

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)-16.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	-26.8%	-33.7%	31%	31%	-44.3%
≤30d	13	-26.8%	-33.7%	31%	31%	-44.3%
≤90d	13	-26.8%	-33.7%	31%	31%	-44.3%
all	22	-7.6%	-16.4%	36%	36%	-43.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.4%	36%	-43.4%
10%	-24.4%	32%	-48.8%
15%	-31.7%	23%	-53.7%
20%	-38.4%	18%	-58.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 60% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -8% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +11% → late -26% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$15 vs −$21 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.41 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

584d coverage

Net worth$20

Realized−$177

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)36%

Wins / losses8 / 14

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage584d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$22	$20	−$3 (-12%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Jun 17	$33	+$5	+14%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$26	−$25	-98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$15	+$73	+473%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$50	+$12	+24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$31	−$30	-98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$40	−$40	-99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$40	−$40	-99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$20	−$20	-99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$37	−$36	-98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$42	+$17	+40%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Mar 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Mar 15	$27	−$11	-42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Mar 15	$14	−$14	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Mar 15	$3	+$3	+113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Mar 15	$3	+$3	+84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Mar 15	$3	−$3	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Mar 15	$1	+$5	+458%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Mar 15	$2	−$2	-99%
Solana above $200 on November 15?	Nov 15	$19	+$5	+26%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	SELL Yes	38¢	$37	26m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$33	1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$15	3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$88	4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$5	7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	7h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	80¢	$50	26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	34¢	$31	30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	64¢	$20	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	64¢	$20	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	64¢	$40	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$51	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$20	4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	29¢	$15	5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	54¢	$22	5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$22	6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	99¢	$59	6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	70¢	$18	6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	70¢	$25	6d
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$5	94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	BUY Down	45¢	$5	94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	SELL Down	35¢	$15	94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$17	94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	BUY Down	8¢	$2	94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$2	94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	BUY Down	45¢	$5	94d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.75 · official $19.75 (match) · 53 history records