Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:45:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

5F 0x5f86…a769 other 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (1764 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL +$136,725 (+41%) realized +$336,311 · open −$199,586

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip

Net edge-59%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate38%3W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$7,435per market

Trades / day1763.6pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$141,641now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-51.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-46.6%	-51.7%	38%	25%	-96.1%
≤30d	8	-46.6%	-51.7%	38%	25%	-96.1%
≤90d	8	-46.6%	-51.7%	38%	25%	-96.1%
all	8	-46.6%	-51.7%	38%	25%	-96.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1763.6 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-51.7%	25%	-96.1%
10% ← realistic here	-56.3%	25%	-96.5%
15%	-60.5%	25%	-96.8%
20%	-64.4%	12%	-97.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 57% · top 2 89% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2492% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -47% · $-wt -2492% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$5,479 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$141,641

Realized+$336,311

Unrealized−$199,586

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses3 / 5

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions74

Markets (closed)8 / 45

History coverage2d ⚠

Avg bet$7,435

Trades / day1763.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 74 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	14¢	$5,558	$45,519	+$39,961 (+719%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	12¢	$2,418	$17,045	+$14,627 (+605%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	6¢	$4,339	$15,687	+$11,349 (+262%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	13¢	$1,568	$11,807	+$10,239 (+653%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	50¢	4¢	$94,169	$7,439	−$86,730 (-92%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	18¢	$626	$6,931	+$6,305 (+1007%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$7,791	$6,311	−$1,480 (-19%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$5,617	$5,224	−$393 (-7%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$4,431	$4,387	−$44 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	7¢	$825	$3,637	+$2,813 (+341%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$9,369	$2,530	−$6,840 (-73%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$8,633	$2,331	−$6,302 (-73%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$1,502	$2,208	+$706 (+47%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$2,592	$1,322	−$1,270 (-49%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$3,139	$1,224	−$1,915 (-61%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	3¢	$523	$831	+$308 (+59%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	3¢	$320	$624	+$304 (+95%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$13,691	$411	−$13,281 (-97%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$13,691	$411	−$13,281 (-97%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$13,691	$411	−$13,281 (-97%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$13,691	$411	−$13,281 (-97%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$13,691	$411	−$13,281 (-97%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$13,691	$411	−$13,281 (-97%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$13,691	$411	−$13,281 (-97%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$13,691	$411	−$13,281 (-97%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 20	$523	−$13,691	-2619%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 20	$523	−$13,691	-2619%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl	Jun 20	$8	−$8	-100%
o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Jun 20	$2	−$2	-100%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?	Jun 20	$3	−$3	-100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	Jun 18	$6	+$4	+76%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl	Jun 18	$29	+$1	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Jun 18	$5	+$2	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	13¢	$38	0m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	18¢	$37	0m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$86	0m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	18¢	$4	1m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	18¢	$10	2m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	13¢	$6	2m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$10	3m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$50	3m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	18¢	$15	4m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	13¢	$1	5m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	13¢	$2	7m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	6¢	$72	8m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$5	8m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	6¢	$30	8m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	6¢	$4	9m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$46	10m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$50	11m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	13¢	$100	12m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	6¢	$2	14m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	13¢	$14	15m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	18¢	$10	15m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$10	15m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	13¢	$10	16m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	6¢	$50	16m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	13¢	$49	16m
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$20	16m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	18¢	$30	17m
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$277	17m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	18¢	$74	17m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	18¢	$4	17m

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141,640.58 · official $141,640.14 (match) · 3500 history records