Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:06:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f86…de5a politics 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 31L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$464per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$8
other 28% −$5
crypto 14% $0
culture 11% −$1
world 8% $0
economics 8% −$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 29 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 32 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$914) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage91d
Avg bet$464
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? Jun 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 23 $1,150 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 23 $1,174 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,114 −$2 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $1,138 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 22 $1,129 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $1,034 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $65 $0 -0%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k? May 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 17 $799 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 11-17? May 17 $782 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $1,591 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $794 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 15 $819 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $831 −$1 -0%
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 02 $115 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $67 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $66 $0 -0%
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027? Mar 29 $24 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $18 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 25 $128 $0 -0%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Mar 25 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $15 1h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $1,147 1h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $1,124 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $15 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $179 2h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $26 2h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $828 2h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $285 2h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,114 3h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,136 23h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $52 23h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 23h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,098 23h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 23h
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 23h
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $198 23h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 24h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $825 24h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 24h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $208 24h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,034 24h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $65 32d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k? SELL No 100¢ $35 32d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 32d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k? BUY No 100¢ $12 32d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 32d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 33d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records