Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:47:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5F 0x5f82…a760 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$54 (+17%) realized +$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +34.0% +21.3% 100% 67% +13.8%
≤30d 3 +34.0% +21.3% 100% 67% +13.8%
≤90d 3 +34.0% +21.3% 100% 67% +13.8%
all 3 +34.0% +21.3% 100% 67% +13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.3% 67% +13.8%
10% +9.7% 67% +3.0%
15% -0.9% 67% -7.0%
20% -10.6% 33% -16.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $55 +$29 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $160 +$4 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $110 +$50 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 71¢ $84 34m
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $164 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $160 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $160 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $55 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $110 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 6 history records