Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:30:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f7f…470b other 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate49%33W / 35L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$5
other 34% +$1
politics 4% +$5
sports 4% +$5
crypto 3% +$1
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 24 +0.7% -8.9% 54% 4% -9.0%
≤90d 24 +0.7% -8.9% 54% 4% -9.0%
all 68 -3.1% -12.3% 49% 7% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 7% -8.8%
10% -20.7% 4% -17.5%
15% -28.4% 3% -25.5%
20% -35.4% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses33 / 35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage481d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $53 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $55 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $52 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 20 $89 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $38 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $52 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $53 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $58 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $58 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $35 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $114 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $32 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 01 $52 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $90 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $47 +$6 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $53 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $48 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $49 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $49 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 04 $22 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Friedrich Merz in 2025? May 31 $2 $0 -24%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 31 $21 $0 -0%
Will Chet Holmgren Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 30 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 30 $18 +$6 +33%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 22 $2 $0 +6%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Delhi Capitals win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? May 18 $21 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship May 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will France be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 9–16? May 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April? May 10 $4 $0 -2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 09 $21 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 36m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $18 36m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $32 36m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $53 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $8 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $47 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $55 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 14h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $51 45h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $52 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $37 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $15 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $13 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $34 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $29 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $12 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $11 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $47 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $13 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $32 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.95 · official $0.14 (match) · 209 history records