Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:25:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5F 0x5f7c…0440 weather 195 markets active 1h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$457 (+2%) realized +$478 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate94%176W / 12L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$438now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 45% +$212
crypto 25% +$26
politics 11% +$28
other 9% +$109
world 8% +$40
economics 1% +$8
finance 1% +$4
tech 1% +$10
sports 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 35 +2.1% -7.7% 100% 9% -7.0%
≤90d 88 +1.5% -8.1% 100% 6% -8.0%
all 188 +2.5% -7.3% 94% 7% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 7% -8.0%
10% -16.1% 2% -16.8%
15% -24.2% 2% -24.9%
20% -31.7% 1% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×5.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×75.04 per $1 lost it wins $75.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$438
Realized+$478
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses176 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)188 / 195
History coverage610d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 96¢ 96¢ $192 $192 −$0 (-0%)
Trump out as President by July 31? No 99¢ 98¢ $123 $123 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in July 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 56¢ 38¢ $67 $45 −$22 (-32%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 72¢ 89¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $877 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $392 $0 +0%
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $226 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on June 11 Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $199 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C or below on June 1 Jun 11 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $47 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 9? Jun 10 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $318 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 9? Jun 09 $565 +$5 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 9? Jun 09 $286 +$10 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 09 $861 +$124 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $124 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $72 +$8 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 2? Jun 03 $495 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 2? Jun 03 $262 +$11 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $189 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 01 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on May 31? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 31? Jun 01 $289 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 31? Jun 01 $37 +$6 +16%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 31? Jun 01 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $107 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 31? Jun 01 $43 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 31? Jun 01 $223 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 31? Jun 01 $8 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 31? Jun 01 $109 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C or higher on May 27? May 28 $732 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 27? May 28 $118 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C or below on May 26? May 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on May 26? May 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C or below on May 26? May 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 26? May 27 $142 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 26? May 27 $580 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $26 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $120 on the final trading day of June 202 May 24 $92 +$5 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 17? May 21 $234 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on May 17? May 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 17? May 17 $69 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 6°C on May 16? May 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 16? May 17 $269 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 16? May 17 $333 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 96¢ $192 46m
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in July 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 1h
Trump out as President by July 31? BUY No 99¢ $123 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $877 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $392 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY No 99¢ $7 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $47 17d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on June 11 BUY No 100¢ $50 17d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $60 17d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $109 17d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $99 17d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $100 17d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $199 17d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $29 17d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $297 17d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C or below on June 1 BUY No 100¢ $49 17d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $318 18d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $149 18d
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $165 18d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $565 18d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $294 18d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 9? BUY No 97¢ $67 18d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 9? BUY No 97¢ $133 18d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 9? BUY No 95¢ $86 18d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $124 18d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? BUY No 87¢ $861 18d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? BUY Yes 89¢ $72 18d
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $36 24d
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $24 24d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $97 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $438.05 · official $438.05 (match) · 815 history records