Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:06:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f77…f668 crypto 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$189 (-4%) realized −$99 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%36W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$451now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$97
14 days−$97
30 days+$814
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$219
other 18% −$53
crypto 15% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 50% -72.0%
≤30d 13 -18.5% -26.3% 46% 46% +41.8%
≤90d 85 -8.1% -16.8% 41% 41% -14.1%
all 89 -9.7% -18.3% 40% 40% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 40% -14.4%
10% -26.2% 37% -22.6%
15% -33.3% 35% -30.1%
20% -39.8% 30% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$41 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$451
Realized−$99
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses36 / 53
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage602d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $541 $451 −$90 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$2 +62%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $119 −$99 -83%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) May 31 $99 −$97 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $29 −$28 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $574 +$510 +89%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $593 +$530 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight May 16 $111 −$109 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli May 16 $32 +$42 +130%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 May 10 $152 +$147 +97%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 May 10 $97 +$111 +114%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 09 $75 −$74 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $79 −$77 -98%
Spread: CA Osasuna (-1.5) Apr 29 $40 −$40 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Pre Apr 26 $16 −$16 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Marcus Buchecha (Heavyweight, Prelims) Apr 26 $90 +$126 +139%
UFC Fight Night: Max Griffin vs. Victor Valenzuela (Welterweight, Prel Apr 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Apr 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 23 $10 +$2 +22%
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 23 $50 −$23 -45%
Elche CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 Apr 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Elche CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Apr 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 07 $846 −$846 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 07 $3 −$3 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 07 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 07 $4 +$2 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 06 $10 −$9 -89%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 06 $13 −$7 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 06 $15 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 06 $27 +$10 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 06 $39 −$31 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Apr 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-04-05? Apr 06 $39 −$39 -100%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5 Apr 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 05 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 05 $2 +$9 +570%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $552 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 6¢ $21 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $119 6d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Jordan 32¢ $99 22d
Will Jordan win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 5¢ $29 22d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,084 23d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 52¢ $574 23d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,124 23d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $593 23d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 23d
UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight BUY Nikolay Veretennikov 47¢ $111 37d
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli SELL Cody Brundage 100¢ $74 37d
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli BUY Cody Brundage 41¢ $4 37d
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli BUY Cody Brundage 43¢ $28 37d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 46¢ $97 43d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $152 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $451.04 · official $487.12 · 200 history records