Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T07:59:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5F
0x5f76…8e57
other · 77 markets active 50d ago
0.0score
+$42,069 +48%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$42,136 · open −$67
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$29
Realized+$42,136
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses31 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)32%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
Avg bet$1,135
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit26%
Chart Positions 1 History 76 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Yes 30¢ 9¢ $96 $29 −$67 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran leadership change by December 31? Apr 23 $128 −$33 -26%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by December 31? Mar 28 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Mar 28 $106 +$22 +21%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 23 $114 −$8 -7%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 05 $37 −$5 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 05 $31 +$6 +20%
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? Dec 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 02 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 16 $9 −$7 -73%
Will 53 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director? Feb 21 $150 −$149 -99%
Will 54 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director? Feb 21 $793 −$792 -100%
Will 55 or more senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director? Feb 21 $203 −$199 -98%
Will Elon tweet 925-949 times Feb 7-14? Feb 15 $866 −$506 -58%
Will Elon tweet 900-924 times Feb 7-14? Feb 15 $1,553 −$765 -49%
Will Elon tweet 950-974 times Feb 7-14? Feb 15 $1,394 −$1,391 -100%
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm RFK Jr? Feb 15 $655 −$552 -84%
Will Elon tweet 1000-1024 times Feb 7-14? Feb 14 $320 −$312 -97%
Will Elon tweet 975-999 times Feb 7-14? Feb 14 $786 −$771 -98%
Will Elon tweet 875-899 times Feb 7-14? Feb 14 $1,196 −$1,100 -92%
Will any Democratic Senator vote to confirm RFK Jr? Feb 13 $1,375 −$1,365 -99%
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary o Feb 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Will 53 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? Feb 13 $330 −$330 -100%
Will 54 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? Feb 13 $318 −$318 -100%
Will 55 or more Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? Feb 13 $655 −$652 -100%
Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14? Feb 13 $179 +$43 +24%
Will 51 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of Natio Feb 13 $1,262 −$1,203 -95%
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? Feb 13 $109 −$109 -100%
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard? Feb 13 $2,101 −$1,823 -87%
Less than 49 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of Feb 13 $546 −$546 -100%
Will 53 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of Natio Feb 13 $1,619 −$1,619 -100%
Will 54 or more Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director Feb 13 $1,354 −$1,351 -100%
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of Natio Feb 12 $952 +$10,954 +1150%
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of Feb 12 $1,048 −$1,033 -99%
Will Elon tweet 750 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 08 $391 −$377 -96%
Will Elon tweet 700-724 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 08 $577 −$487 -84%
Will Elon tweet 725-749 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 08 $400 −$395 -99%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 08 $983 −$491 -50%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 07 $1,022 +$14,039 +1374%
Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of Feb 07 $257 +$2,006 +782%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 07 $6,820 +$2,893 +42%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 06 $0 +$804 +171774%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 05 $208 +$1,039 +500%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 04 $80 +$664 +831%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 04 $345 +$1,600 +464%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 04 $258 +$1,977 +765%
Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 04 $5,979 −$5,266 -88%
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 04 $3,170 +$24,449 +771%
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 04 $2,805 −$1,096 -39%
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 03 $2,700 −$1,002 -37%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 03 $837 +$1,132 +135%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 87% +$37,431
world 11% +$2,353
politics 2% +$2,291
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $96 49d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $96 49d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $128 73d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? SELL Yes 80¢ $128 75d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $106 80d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 53¢ $106 80d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $114 81d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by December 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $33 188d
Maduro out in 2025? SELL Yes 14¢ $33 188d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY Yes 16¢ $37 188d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 SELL No 30¢ $37 188d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 BUY No 25¢ $31 188d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by December 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 191d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 191d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 191d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 191d
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? BUY No 0¢ $4 422d
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? BUY No 0¢ $2 422d
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 422d
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 476d
Will 54 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 476d
Will 54 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 476d
Will 54 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 476d
Will 53 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 476d
Will 54 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 476d
Will 53 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 476d
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 477d
Will 53 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director? BUY Yes 10¢ $99 478d
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 478d
Will 53 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 479d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+83.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 -27.8% -34.7% 25% 25% -22.6%
all 76 +102.6% +83.3% 41% 38% +33.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +83.3% 38% +33.3%
10% +65.8% 30% +20.6%
15% +49.7% 26% +8.9%
20% +35.1% 25% -1.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.05 · official $29.05 (match) · 3500 history records