Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:19:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5F 0x5f75…bd97 crypto 155 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+5%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%46W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$26
14 days+$12
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +4.5% -5.4% 32% 32% +7.7%
≤30d 51 +19.0% +7.7% 31% 31% -3.3%
≤90d 128 +12.9% +2.2% 31% 31% -4.0%
all 153 +9.9% -0.6% 30% 29% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 29% -6.3%
10% -10.1% 29% -15.3%
15% -18.8% 29% -23.5%
20% -26.7% 26% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses46 / 107
Open positions2
Markets (closed)153 / 155
History coverage147d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $16 +$12 +74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$18 +214%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $19 −$18 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$17 +473%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $20 −$19 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $21 +$22 +106%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$7 +63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$24 +456%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $2 +$11 +705%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $5 +$4 +79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $1 +$20 +1895%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 26? May 27 $5 +$2 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 25? May 27 $10 +$4 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 26? May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 25? May 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 25? May 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 22? May 25 $10 +$6 +60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 22? May 22 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 22? May 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 20? May 22 $15 +$7 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $4 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 20? May 20 $4 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 19? May 20 $5 +$3 +57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 17? May 19 $5 +$5 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 18? May 19 $10 +$7 +65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 19? May 19 $2 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 18? May 18 $4 −$3 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 40m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 41m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.70 · official $5.70 (match) · 308 history records