Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:44:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5F 0x5f6f…374f crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$48 (+0%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate91%20W / 2L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$2,095per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$51
tech 0% $0
world 0% −$1
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 22 -3.1% -12.3% 91% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 83% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×14.6 per $1 lost it wins $14.6
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses20 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage165d
Avg bet$2,095
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 05 $25 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 05 $79 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in April? May 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 05 $23 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $6,239 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $21,313 +$21 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $21,401 +$21 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Mar 06 $118 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 26 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 1 Feb 11 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 4 Feb 05 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 3? Feb 04 $117 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 01 $117 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jan 17 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? Jan 17 $94 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 13 $4 −$3 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $48 1h
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $48 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 32d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $30 37d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $27 41d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 99¢ $25 44d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $48 48d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $23 61d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $35 64d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in April? BUY No 100¢ $25 68d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $24 69d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? BUY No 99¢ $39 74d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $143 97d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $448 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $884 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,013 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $125 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $24 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $3,833 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $4,995 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,172 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $100 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $100 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $101 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $0 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $999 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $7,518 98d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 98d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $149 98d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.03 · official $96.03 (match) · 90 history records