Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:13:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f6f…1284 sports 60 markets active 5d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$30 (-6%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%28W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$74
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$42
crypto 19% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -20.1% -27.7% 44% 33% -76.3%
≤30d 60 -5.9% -14.9% 47% 45% -14.9%
≤90d 60 -5.9% -14.9% 47% 45% -14.9%
all 60 -5.9% -14.9% 47% 45% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 45% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 38% -23.1%
15% -30.5% 27% -30.5%
20% -37.3% 20% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses28 / 32
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage7d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +53%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $76 −$73 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$5 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $14 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $16 +$4 +25%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $3 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -50%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $8 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$5 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$6 +186%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $17 +$3 +16%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $17 +$3 +16%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $42 +$16 +38%
Dota 2: Ramzes Club vs VooDooSh Club (BO5) - Winline Star Series Playo Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -89%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $11 +$9 +79%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $6 +$2 +27%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $2 +$11 +550%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $27 +$13 +47%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $6 +$2 +34%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 +$5 +248%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $12 +$10 +83%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $12 −$10 -83%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $14 +$28 +204%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $21 +$7 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 32¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 29¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 99¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 76¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 74¢ $24 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 74¢ $20 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 75¢ $15 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S SELL BetBoom Team 35¢ $4 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 65¢ $13 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records