Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:09:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5F 0x5f61…f488 sports 224 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,062 (-3%) realized −$1,062 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%111W / 112L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$257est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$114
7 days−$561
14 days−$625
30 days+$864
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$369
sports 38% −$322
other 8% −$670
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -25.0% -32.1% 40% 40% -40.9%
≤30d 72 +20.2% +8.8% 54% 54% +6.7%
≤90d 223 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 44% -12.5%
all 223 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 44% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 44% -12.5%
10% -17.4% 40% -20.9%
15% -25.4% 38% -28.5%
20% -32.7% 33% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$117 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,062
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses111 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$257
Open positions0
Markets (closed)223 / 224
History coverage77d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 223 Trades
no open positions (64 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 28 $41 −$9 -22%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 28 $41 −$5 -12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $152 −$150 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $502 +$75 +15%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $302 −$300 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$63 +124%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $41 +$28 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$24 +48%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$28 +55%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $30 +$35 +114%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $31 +$46 +152%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$28 +55%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 20 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$31 +76%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $40 −$40 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $40 −$40 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5) Jun 20 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-9.5) Jun 20 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 +$27 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $41 +$31 +76%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$15 +31%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $41 +$34 +83%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Jun 18 $30 +$33 +109%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $30 +$11 +36%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$68 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$36 +70%
Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 46¢ $32 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 45¢ $36 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $577 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $302 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $502 4d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 58¢ $41 5d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 49¢ $41 5d
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $30 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 29¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 6d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $31 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 66¢ $40 7d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 68¢ $40 7d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 53¢ $30 7d
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 57¢ $30 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 46¢ $30 7d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ $30 7d
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Atlanta Dream 63¢ $40 7d
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5) BUY Seattle Storm 52¢ $41 7d
Spread: Dallas Wings (-9.5) BUY Dallas Wings 51¢ $41 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 401 history records