Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:06:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f5e…49b9 tech 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+1%) realized +$21 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%142W / 6L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$13
crypto 14% +$1
tech 13% $0
world 10% +$11
politics 3% −$6
economics 2% $0
weather 2% $0
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 21 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 90 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 1% -8.2%
all 148 -3.4% -12.6% 96% 1% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 1% -8.8%
10% -20.9% 1% -17.5%
15% -28.6% 0% -25.5%
20% -35.6% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.42 per $1 lost it wins $3.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses142 / 6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)148 / 152
History coverage491d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cap FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 99¢ 99¢ $141 $141 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Movement for the Liberation of the Central African People win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 27 $177 $0 +0%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $178 +$2 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Tea FDV above $150M one day after launch Jun 04 $180 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? Jun 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? Jun 01 $98 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control O May 31 $4 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On May 31 $3 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control May 31 $4 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 31 $83 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Contro May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? May 29 $5 $0 +1%
Citrea FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 28 $116 $0 +0%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $83 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $87 +$2 +2%
Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $77 +$4 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $45 +$1 +1%
Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 12 $45 +$1 +1%
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 05 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in April? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will BNB dip to $400 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $120 end of April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 me May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April meeti May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $20 end of April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting? May 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 05 $4 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cap FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $141 1h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 100¢ $177 16h
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3 18h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $178 39h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $22 21d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $3 22d
Tea FDV above $150M one day after launch BUY No 100¢ $180 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? BUY No 100¢ $98 26d
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 27d
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $83 29d
Will Solana reach $100 in May? BUY No 99¢ $34 29d
Citrea FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $116 30d
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $83 34d
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 34d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $87 38d
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? BUY No 99¢ $3 40d
Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $77 42d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 98¢ $41 43d
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control O BUY No 100¢ $1 43d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4 43d
Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 99¢ $45 43d
Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 99¢ $45 46d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 46d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 47d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 48d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 48d
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control BUY No 99¢ $4 48d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $4 48d
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Contro BUY No 100¢ $4 48d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $5 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.68 · official $146.75 (match) · 308 history records