Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:17:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f5b…b598 culture 276 markets active 1h ago coverage 337d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 337d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$335 (+0%) realized +$240 · open +$95
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate64%175W / 98L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$1,113per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$10,573now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 337d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% +$15,307
culture 25% +$86,720
other 17% −$3,198
politics 12% +$3,129
economics 9% −$7,629
world 3% −$2,009
finance 1% +$52
crypto 0% +$401
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+38.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -9.6% -18.2% 57% 50% -5.2%
≤30d 28 +33.1% +20.4% 57% 39% -1.5%
≤90d 112 +17.6% +6.4% 46% 29% -25.2%
all 273 +52.9% +38.3% 64% 40% +8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +38.3% 40% +8.8%
10% ← realistic here +25.1% 28% -1.6%
15% +13.0% 20% -11.1%
20% +1.9% 15% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$860) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +91% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$888 vs −$711 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

337d coverage
Net worth$10,573
Realized+$240
Unrealized+$95
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses175 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)273 / 276
History coverage337d ⚠
Avg bet$1,113
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $3,379 $3,332 −$47 (-1%)
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No 90¢ 88¢ $2,550 $2,511 −$39 (-2%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 86¢ 82¢ $1,912 $1,824 −$88 (-5%)
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026? No 92¢ 97¢ $1,563 $1,653 +$90 (+6%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 85¢ 99¢ $470 $547 +$77 (+16%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 72¢ $292 $402 +$110 (+38%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 48¢ 60¢ $107 $134 +$28 (+26%)
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $96 $98 +$3 (+3%)
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 34¢ $67 $38 −$29 (-43%)
Will Leroy Sané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 54¢ $38 $30 −$8 (-22%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 67¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-28%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 27¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "ZENSHU" win Best Original Anime at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Aw Jun 18 $11 +$272 +2417%
Will "ReawakeR (feat. Felix of Stray Kids)" by LiSA (Solo Leveling Sea Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will "Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc" win Film of the Year at the Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album before 2026? Jun 18 $5,385 −$5,695 -106%
Will "Moonrise" win Best Original Anime at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Jun 18 $27 −$46 -172%
Will "Takopi's Original Sin" win Anime of the Year at the 2026 Crunchy Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will "The Apothecary Diaries Season 2" win Anime of the Year at the 20 Jun 18 $3 −$11 -347%
Will "On The Way" by AiNA THE END (DAN DA DAN Season 2) win Best Anime Jun 18 $3 −$9 -320%
Will "JANE DOE" by Kenshi Yonezu and Hikaru Utada (Chainsaw Man – The Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $80 +$31 +39%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $273 +$60 +22%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +92%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $728 +$49 +7%
Will Jamal Musiala score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $82 +$29 +36%
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $93 +$18 +20%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $53 +$58 +108%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $151 +$71 +47%
Will Antonio Rüdiger score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $18 −$1 -5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $190 −$190 -100%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 10 or more seats in South Korea Jun 05 $233 +$269 +115%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 02 $732 +$5 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $42 +$2 +5%
Will "Gachiakuta" win Anime of the Year at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime May 26 $238 −$237 -99%
Will "CITY THE ANIMATION" win Best Comedy Anime at the 2026 Crunchyrol May 26 $28 +$2 +6%
Will "DIGIMON BEATBREAK" win Best Original Anime at the 2026 Crunchyro May 26 $655 −$607 -93%
Will "WITCH WATCH" win Best Comedy Anime at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime May 26 $39 +$2 +5%
Will "Watch Me!" by YOASOBI (WITCH WATCH) win Best Anime Song at the 2 May 26 $259 −$208 -80%
Will "100 Meters" win Film of the Year at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime A May 26 $234 −$136 -58%
Will "Apocalypse Hotel" win Best Original Anime at the 2026 Crunchyrol May 26 $1,011 −$900 -89%
Will "The Fragrant Flower Blooms With Dignity" win Best New Series at May 26 $505 −$256 -51%
Will "IRIS OUT" by Kenshi Yonezu (Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc) May 26 $169 +$282 +167%
Will "Lazarus" win Best Original Anime at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime A May 26 $123 +$1,419 +1156%
Will "My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON" win Anime of the Year at the 2026 May 26 $1,210 +$918 +76%
Will "My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON" win Best Action Anime at the 2026 May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Mobile Suit Gundam GQuuuuuuX" win Best Original Anime at the 202 May 17 $237 −$220 -93%
Will "Clevatess" win Best New Series at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awa May 17 $78 −$11 -14%
Will "The Summer Hikaru Died" win Best New Series at the 2026 Crunchyr May 17 $217 −$216 -99%
Will Germany come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $4 +$1 +30%
Will United Kingdom be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 $0 +7%
Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $4 +$1 +43%
Will Greece win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Israel win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 17 $1 +$10 +733%
Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $24 +$20 +82%
Will Sweden be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Austria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Moldova be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $26 +$7 +28%
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Germany be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $84 +$4 +5%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $60 +$40 +67%
Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $111 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $115 50m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $176 3h
Will Leroy Sané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 55¢ $1 12h
Will Leroy Sané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 55¢ $2 17h
Will Leroy Sané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 55¢ $16 18h
Will Leroy Sané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 55¢ $2 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $80 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $153 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $91 2d
Will Leroy Sané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 64¢ $11 3d
Will Antonio Rüdiger score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $17 3d
Will Leroy Sané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $38 4d
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $34 4d
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $34 4d
Will Leroy Sané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $38 4d
Will Antonio Rüdiger score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $18 4d
Will Jamal Musiala score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $82 4d
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $93 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $3 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $37 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $55 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $190 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $302 5d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $53 5d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 68¢ $151 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,572.58 · official $10,570.59 (match) · 3500 history records