Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:46:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f5a…182e crypto 1345 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,452 (-13%) realized −$5,019 · open −$433
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%581W / 786L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day43.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6,238
sports 0% +$1
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 445 -29.8% -36.4% 23% 23% -19.2%
≤30d 975 -1.7% -11.1% 41% 40% +6.4%
≤90d 1367 -1.7% -11.0% 43% 41% -1.7%
all 1367 -1.7% -11.0% 43% 41% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 41% -1.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 39% -11.1%
15% -27.3% 36% -19.7%
20% -34.5% 32% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$21 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$5,019
Unrealized−$433
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses581 / 786
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1367 / 1345
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day43.8
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1367 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 38¢ 98¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+157%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 20¢ 41¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+105%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 491 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$10 +652%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 4AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$6 -304%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$30 +220%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 29, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $211 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $52 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $52 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $21 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $32 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $21 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $32 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $7 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $8 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $20 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $59 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $41 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $21 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $65 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $32 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $43 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $21 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $8 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.42 · official $16.98 · 3500 history records