Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:24:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f58…626f crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$85 (+22%) realized +$115 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%4W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$110
14 days+$99
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$114
crypto 41% −$85
world 13% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-49.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -23.4% -30.7% 25% 25% +61.3%
≤30d 17 -41.0% -46.6% 24% 24% +14.4%
≤90d 18 -44.3% -49.6% 22% 22% -6.4%
all 18 -44.3% -49.6% 22% 22% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.6% 22% -6.4%
10% -54.4% 22% -15.3%
15% -58.8% 22% -23.5%
20% -62.8% 22% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -63% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$12 · ×3.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$115
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses4 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage75d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $20 $37 +$18 (+88%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Yes 35¢ 2¢ $50 $2 −$48 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$25 -48%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $82 +$168 +206%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 04 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $21 −$20 -98%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $51 2h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $82 21h
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 13d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $12 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 15d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.18 · official $56.18 (match) · 42 history records