Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:38:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f57…61e5 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,483 (-37%) realized −$3,523 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate36%13W / 23L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$115
7 days−$2,313
14 days−$2,313
30 days−$2,313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% −$2,766
other 16% −$667
crypto 1% −$4
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -68.8% -71.8% 0% 0% -71.9%
≤30d 7 -68.8% -71.8% 0% 0% -71.9%
≤90d 36 -27.0% -33.9% 36% 22% -43.5%
all 36 -27.0% -33.9% 36% 22% -43.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.9% 22% -43.5%
10% -40.2% 14% -48.9%
15% -46.0% 11% -53.9%
20% -51.3% 6% -58.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -29% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$155 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$3,523
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses13 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage97d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 84¢ $90 $130 +$40 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $591 −$95 -16%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $140 −$17 -12%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 15 $806 −$476 -59%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $1,692 −$1,598 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 12 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 11 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 11 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 11 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 11 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 11 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 11 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 11 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 11 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 11 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? Apr 11 $4 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 11 $393 −$211 -54%
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30? Apr 11 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $7 −$3 -38%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? Apr 11 $1,350 −$696 -52%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 10 $2,688 −$58 -2%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $100 +$77 +77%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 08 $756 −$216 -29%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 28, 2026? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026? Apr 04 $50 −$9 -17%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $312 −$4 -1%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Apr 02 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? Apr 02 $163 −$18 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $91 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 7h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $48 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $50 8h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $4 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 77¢ $123 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 88¢ $140 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 42¢ $141 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $208 4d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $100 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $308 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $333 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $330 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $94 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $192 55d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 55d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 55d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 55d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $210 55d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 55d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 55d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $282 55d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 55d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 55d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $1,500 55d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 55d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $279 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.57 · official $129.57 (match) · 153 history records