Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:04:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5F 0x5f56…f2aa crypto 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$876 (+21%) realized +$882 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate37%10W / 17L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$999now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$667
7 days+$1,034
14 days+$1,034
30 days+$1,034
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$1,027
other 26% −$4
crypto 10% −$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +53.3% +38.7% 100% 75% +24.1%
≤30d 4 +53.3% +38.7% 100% 75% +24.1%
≤90d 27 -32.1% -38.6% 37% 19% +14.7%
all 27 -32.1% -38.6% 37% 19% +14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.6% 19% +14.7%
10% -44.5% 7% +3.8%
15% -49.8% 4% -6.3%
20% -54.7% 4% -15.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt +27% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$11 · ×9.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.68 per $1 lost it wins $5.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$999
Realized+$882
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses10 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage43d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 26¢ 26¢ $1,005 $999 −$6 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $1,015 +$26 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $374 +$641 +171%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $1,329 +$359 +27%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 17 $60 +$7 +12%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 15 $5 −$5 -93%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 10 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 10 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 10 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 10 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 10 $25 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 10 $26 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 10 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 10 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 10 $58 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 10 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 10 $11 −$6 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 10 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 10 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 10 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 10 $10 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 10 $106 −$106 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 26¢ $1,034 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 77¢ $1,041 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $1,015 46h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1,015 46h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $374 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $374 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $273 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $70 3d
Ebola case in the US by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $67 3d
Ebola case in the US by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $60 33d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 64¢ $1,314 38d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 39d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 85¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 42d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 80¢ $5 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $5 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $5 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $5 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $6 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $6 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $998.97 · official $998.97 (match) · 119 history records