Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:32:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5F 0x5f53…41bd other 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$256 (+6%) realized +$241 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%54W / 67L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$392now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$108
14 days+$108
30 days+$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$30
world 19% +$98
tech 16% +$58
politics 8% −$164
economics 5% +$152
sports 5% +$67
culture 2% +$50
crypto 1% −$4
finance 1% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +56.7% +41.8% 100% 100% +41.2%
≤30d 13 +46.7% +32.7% 77% 77% +29.0%
≤90d 48 +16.1% +5.0% 56% 56% +0.2%
all 121 +0.7% -8.9% 45% 45% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 45% -4.3%
10% -17.6% 43% -13.5%
15% -25.6% 42% -21.8%
20% -32.9% 37% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$23 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$392
Realized+$241
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses54 / 67
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)121 / 132
History coverage262d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 52¢ 97¢ $30 $56 +$26 (+86%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 40¢ 66¢ $30 $50 +$20 (+66%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 66¢ 62¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-7%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 44¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-28%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 41¢ 70¢ $11 $18 +$7 (+70%)
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 66¢ 24¢ $38 $14 −$24 (-63%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 +$30 +73%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $44 +$18 +40%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 14 $27 +$17 +61%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 05 $15 +$13 +83%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 02 $17 +$14 +79%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 02 $15 +$40 +262%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 02 $30 +$27 +90%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $20 +$22 +109%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? May 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $41 +$31 +76%
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026? May 05 $10 +$22 +216%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 05 $30 +$32 +108%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? May 01 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $27 +$37 +138%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Apr 18 $73 −$35 -48%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $25 +$21 +83%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $10 +$11 +114%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-18? Apr 09 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $30 +$22 +73%
ChatGPT Outage by April 24? Apr 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Apr 08 $20 +$35 +177%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $9 +$10 +119%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $18 +$15 +79%
Will Iran strike Oman again in March? Apr 06 $12 +$28 +231%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $20 +$25 +124%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? Apr 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 04 $60 +$25 +41%
US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31? Apr 03 $20 +$31 +156%
Claude 4.7 released by May 31? Apr 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $40 +$22 +56%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 01 $30 +$36 +119%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31? Mar 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $24 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $61 39h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 39h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $44 6d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $27 14d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 66¢ $39 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 52¢ $31 19d
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $30 19d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 66¢ $41 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 54¢ $15 19d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 28d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 28d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 28d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 28d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY DN SOOPers 23¢ $15 30d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 47¢ $20 30d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $17 30d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 30d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 30d
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? BUY No 28¢ $12 30d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 46d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 47d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 60d
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY No 49¢ $33 64d
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world SELL Yes 58¢ $33 64d
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY Yes 67¢ $38 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $392.00 · official $392.00 (match) · 263 history records