Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:31:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f49…1739 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%13W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$1
world 26% $0
politics 16% +$2
tech 14% $0
culture 6% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 2% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
all 42 -5.1% -14.2% 31% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 2% -9.7%
10% -22.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -29.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses13 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage446d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Crin Antonescu? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? Jun 24 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio May 31 $9 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton be named in Epstein files? May 31 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $8 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? May 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 22 $7 +$1 +7%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 16 $7 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 14 $2 $0 -12%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 9–16? May 13 $7 $0 -1%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 10 $2 −$1 -22%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 08 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 07 $9 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $7 +$2 +21%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 23 $8 $0 -6%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will Brighton finish in the top 4 of EPL? Apr 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 06 $17 $0 -2%
Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Apr 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Apr 05 $25 $0 -1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April? Apr 01 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 30? Apr 01 $2 −$1 -74%
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? Mar 30 $2 $0 -28%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before April? Mar 29 $52 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $26 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $26 3h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $9 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $25 12d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi SELL No 96¢ $16 337d
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? SELL No 98¢ $8 358d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Crin Antonescu? BUY Yes $0 371d
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? BUY No 97¢ $8 380d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 380d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $8 381d
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio SELL No 95¢ $9 382d
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio BUY No 96¢ $9 382d
Will Hillary Clinton be named in Epstein files? SELL No 93¢ $3 382d
Will Hillary Clinton be named in Epstein files? SELL No 93¢ $6 382d
Will Hillary Clinton be named in Epstein files? BUY No 92¢ $8 383d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 383d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $8 385d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $9 386d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $9 391d
Will India invade Pakistan before July? SELL No 96¢ $8 391d
Will India invade Pakistan before July? BUY No 96¢ $8 391d
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th BUY No 93¢ $7 397d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? SELL No 96¢ $7 397d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? SELL Yes $1 399d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? BUY No 97¢ $7 399d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $2 399d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? SELL No 95¢ $6 399d
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? SELL Yes $0 399d
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? SELL Yes $0 399d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 143 history records