Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:15:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f47…843c world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 29L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$5
sports 15% $0
other 15% +$1
politics 14% $0
crypto 7% $0
economics 4% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +4.3% -5.7% 50% 25% -9.0%
≤30d 11 +2.5% -7.3% 36% 9% -8.2%
≤90d 11 +2.5% -7.3% 36% 9% -8.2%
all 40 +1.4% -8.3% 28% 5% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 5% -8.5%
10% -17.0% 2% -17.2%
15% -25.1% 2% -25.2%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×8.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.53 per $1 lost it wins $6.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage268d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $50 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +17%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $15 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $39 +$4 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $16 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $38 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $17 $0 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 30 $19 $0 +2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 05 $8 $0 -2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 30 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $19 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $4 $0 -7%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 25 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $1 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $39 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $39 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $6 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $30 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $35 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $39 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $39 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $2 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $15 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $21 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $39 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $15 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $15 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $38 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 16d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $35 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $35 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $16 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $16 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $38 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $38 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $16 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $17 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records