trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | Jun 03 | $95 | +$3 | +4% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? | Jun 03 | $182 | +$13 | +7% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? | Jun 03 | $382 | +$25 | +7% |
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the | Apr 20 | $3,059 | −$3,059 | -100% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Apr 19 | $130 | +$67 | +52% |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap | Apr 19 | $49 | +$111 | +226% |
| Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Apr 14 | $127 | −$127 | -100% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | Apr 08 | $443 | −$443 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 6? | Apr 07 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 5? | Apr 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 5? | Apr 06 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Apr 02 | $273 | +$26 | +10% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? | Apr 01 | $98 | +$2 | +2% |
| Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31? | Apr 01 | $243 | +$7 | +3% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Mar 31 | $74 | +$26 | +36% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | +5.8% | -4.3% | 100% | 0% | -3.8% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -17.0% | -24.9% | 60% | 20% | -68.4% |
| all | 15 | -17.0% | -24.9% | 60% | 20% | -68.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -24.9% | 20% | -68.4% |
| 10% | -32.1% | 20% | -71.4% |
| 15% | -38.7% | 20% | -74.2% |
| 20% | -44.7% | 13% | -76.7% |