Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:04:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
5F 0x5f43…a070 sports 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$50 (+1%) realized +$55 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate72%52W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days−$108
14 days+$43
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$31
other 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -15.4% -23.4% 62% 62% -18.3%
≤30d 72 +12.1% +1.4% 72% 64% -8.5%
≤90d 72 +12.1% +1.4% 72% 64% -8.5%
all 72 +12.1% +1.4% 72% 64% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 64% -8.5%
10% -8.3% 19% -17.2%
15% -17.1% 15% -25.2%
20% -25.3% 12% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$23 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$55
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses52 / 20
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage14d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-14%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 45¢ 14¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $140 +$27 +19%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 +$1 +12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $78 +$12 +15%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $18 −$14 -80%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $9 −$8 -83%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $140 +$22 +16%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 +$6 +11%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 +$4 +91%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$12 -61%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $52 +$8 +16%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $85 −$57 -67%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $60 −$52 -87%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +73%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $61 +$9 +15%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $77 +$11 +14%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -96%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $72 +$12 +16%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $31 +$4 +14%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $75 +$11 +15%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $120 −$86 -72%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $88 +$13 +15%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $176 −$5 -3%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $85 −$36 -42%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $87 −$48 -55%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $84 +$15 +18%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $42 +$17 +41%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $87 +$12 +14%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $22 +$11 +47%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $49 +$9 +17%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $65 +$11 +17%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $73 +$27 +37%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $61 +$9 +15%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $22 +$8 +33%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $29 +$30 +103%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $37 +$2 +5%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $21 −$13 -62%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $70 $0 -0%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $140 +$19 +14%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $68 +$12 +18%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $74 +$16 +22%
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $60 −$60 -100%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $62 +$8 +14%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $62 +$8 +14%
Albania vs. Luxembourg: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $61 +$7 +12%
Qatar vs. El Salvador: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $21 −$11 -53%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $69 +$11 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 8h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $167 18h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 19h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 50¢ $10 19h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $9 19h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $60 20h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $80 20h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $11 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $5 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $17 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $9 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $36 23h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 12¢ $4 25h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 SELL Over 8¢ $2 26h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $18 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $9 28h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $80 43h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $60 44h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 84¢ $6 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 84¢ $2 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $4 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $9 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $9 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $14 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $18 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $8 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.68 · official $11.68 (match) · 242 history records