Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5F 0x5f3f…a267 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$518 (+28%) realized +$518 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$48
14 days+$48
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$522
sports 29% +$69
tech 3% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -24.3% -31.5% 56% 56% -2.1%
≤30d 9 -24.3% -31.5% 56% 56% -2.1%
≤90d 12 -13.9% -22.1% 58% 58% +16.3%
all 12 -13.9% -22.1% 58% 58% +16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 58% +16.3%
10% -29.6% 25% +5.1%
15% -36.4% 17% -5.0%
20% -42.6% 8% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$20 · ×4.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.39 per $1 lost it wins $6.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$518
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage57d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 +$17 +34%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $90 +$10 +11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $201 +$37 +18%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $15 +$7 +48%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $160 +$18 +11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$21 -41%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $60 −$58 -97%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24? Apr 24 $281 +$364 +130%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 24 $939 +$178 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 90¢ $5 54m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 90¢ $85 54m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $50 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 20¢ $1 16h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 20¢ $5 16h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $4 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $201 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $160 32h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $15 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $30 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 32h
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes $0 51d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes $1 51d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes $1 51d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 54d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 54d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? SELL Yes 72¢ $79 54d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $15 54d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24? BUY Yes 34¢ $99 54d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 54d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24? BUY Yes 51¢ $100 54d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24? BUY Yes 57¢ $13 54d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24? BUY Yes 58¢ $13 54d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 54d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 54d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 54d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24? BUY Yes 53¢ $18 54d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24? BUY Yes 53¢ $18 54d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24? BUY Yes 53¢ $12 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records