Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:46:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f3e…5337 weather 711 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$599 (-2%) realized −$508 · open −$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%373W / 287L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day36.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$6,559now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$427
7 days−$232
14 days+$34
30 days−$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 48% −$573
world 27% +$524
other 14% −$623
politics 10% −$274
finance 1% +$40
tech 0% +$29
sports 0% −$8
economics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -5.2% -14.2% 59% 39% -12.9%
≤30d 405 -6.8% -15.7% 55% 41% -10.4%
≤90d 660 -6.6% -15.5% 57% 43% -12.0%
all 660 -6.6% -15.5% 57% 43% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 43% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 30% -20.4%
15% -30.9% 22% -28.1%
20% -37.7% 17% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$25 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$6,559
Realized−$508
Unrealized−$91
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses373 / 287
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions51
Markets (closed)660 / 711
History coverage60d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day36.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 51 History 660 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 94¢ $477 $553 +$75 (+16%)
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $500 $509 +$9 (+2%)
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? No 86¢ 86¢ $497 $499 +$2 (+1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? No 87¢ 86¢ $435 $432 −$2 (-1%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? No 92¢ 96¢ $386 $404 +$18 (+5%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 92¢ $330 $368 +$38 (+12%)
5kt meteor strike in 2026? No 74¢ 72¢ $355 $348 −$7 (-2%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 97¢ $272 $291 +$19 (+7%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 88¢ 97¢ $263 $290 +$26 (+10%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $235 $238 +$3 (+1%)
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $227 $227 +$0 (+0%)
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $220 $219 −$1 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 99¢ $197 $217 +$20 (+10%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 54¢ 52¢ $161 $157 −$4 (-2%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 77¢ 86¢ $130 $147 +$17 (+13%)
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? No 94¢ 96¢ $138 $143 +$4 (+3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $94 $98 +$4 (+5%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 75¢ 98¢ $75 $98 +$23 (+31%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 78¢ 97¢ $78 $97 +$19 (+25%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026? Yes 91¢ 93¢ $91 $93 +$2 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $91 $92 +$1 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 28, 2026? Yes 92¢ 91¢ $92 $91 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? No 90¢ 84¢ $90 $84 −$6 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22? No 78¢ 81¢ $78 $81 +$3 (+4%)
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in June 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $78 $80 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $484 +$16 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20? Jun 21 $52 −$43 -81%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 21 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 20? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 20? Jun 21 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 20? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 21 $35 +$23 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? Jun 21 $22 +$28 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $34 +$36 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $35 +$65 +184%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $37 +$8 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $37 +$63 +170%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $33 +$17 +53%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $564 +$131 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $21 +$8 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $44 +$6 +15%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $41 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $501 +$19 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $273 +$24 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 20 $46 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $37 +$13 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $60 +$90 +151%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $35 +$65 +186%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 19 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $32 +$18 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 +$110 +278%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $47 +$53 +112%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $297 −$197 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $93 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $79 +$21 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $91 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $56 +$44 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $84 +$16 +20%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$19 +18%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $91 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $66 +$34 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $78 +$22 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $75 +$25 +33%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $502 +$73 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 87¢ $437 13m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 22m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 34m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 34m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $2 41m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $0 41m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $3 42m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $4 44m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $5 44m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $27 44m
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $227 45m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $18 53m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $6 54m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $5 56m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $8 1h
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? BUY No 86¢ $52 1h
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? BUY No 87¢ $87 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 22? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 22? BUY Yes 83¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22? BUY No 78¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,559.46 · official $6,564.82 (match) · 2799 history records