Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:19:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f30…eeb6 sports 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,350 (-38%) realized −$7,352 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate29%25W / 61L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$176
7 days−$387
14 days−$564
30 days−$477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$1,236
world 40% −$5,997
other 12% −$170
weather 0% −$2
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-48.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -70.6% -73.4% 14% 11% -39.9%
≤30d 45 -53.7% -58.1% 22% 20% -27.1%
≤90d 65 -39.8% -45.5% 29% 23% -20.1%
all 86 -42.7% -48.1% 29% 20% -45.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.1% 20% -45.7%
10% -53.1% 14% -50.9%
15% -57.6% 8% -55.6%
20% -61.8% 7% -60.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -29% → late -57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$144 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$7,352
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses25 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 64
History coverage110d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 58¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $121 −$13 -11%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $120 +$14 +11%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $111 −$109 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 −$2 -12%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $205 −$197 -96%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 +$71 +70%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $82 −$82 -100%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $102 +$114 +112%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $102 −$2 -2%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $10 +$1 +12%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $103 −$6 -6%
Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi Jun 05 $249 −$249 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $355 −$78 -22%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $112 +$72 +64%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $10 −$5 -53%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $10 −$2 -20%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 05 $102 +$86 +84%
Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5) May 24 $195 +$55 +28%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 23 $11 +$3 +26%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 23 $68 +$32 +47%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 19 $188 −$2 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $158 −$6 -4%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $10 $0 -5%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? May 17 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $198 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $72 −$71 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 90¢ $180 1h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 44¢ $18 2h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 61¢ $101 2h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 54¢ $13 2h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 54¢ $63 2h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 54¢ $3 2h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 54¢ $3 2h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 54¢ $27 2h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 51¢ $100 2h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 51¢ $2 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 36¢ $20 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $82 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $46 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $6 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $120 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 77¢ $60 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 77¢ $47 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $101 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $10 28h
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Caty McNally 23¢ $51 4d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? SELL No 6¢ $1 4d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Caty McNally 23¢ $6 4d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Caty McNally 23¢ $0 4d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Caty McNally 24¢ $49 4d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Caty McNally 23¢ $1 4d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Caty McNally 23¢ $0 4d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Caty McNally 23¢ $0 4d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Caty McNally 23¢ $2 4d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Caty McNally 23¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 6¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.55 · official $3.55 (match) · 320 history records