Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f2e…e75e weather 208 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$235 (+5%) realized +$229 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate70%157W / 68L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$58
14 days+$58
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$202
sports 2% −$16
crypto 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -54.7% -59.0% 37% 26% -5.3%
≤30d 47 -43.8% -49.1% 45% 32% -7.1%
≤90d 225 -12.1% -20.5% 70% 48% -7.6%
all 225 -12.1% -20.5% 70% 48% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 48% -7.6%
10% -28.1% 20% -16.4%
15% -35.1% 9% -24.5%
20% -41.4% 4% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized+$229
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses157 / 68
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)225 / 208
History coverage59d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 19? Yes 89¢ 92¢ $193 $200 +$7 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 48¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+44%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 12? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on June 15? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 12? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on May 12? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on May 12? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on May 12? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 12? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or higher on May 12? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 12? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 15? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on May 12? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on May 12? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C or higher on May 12? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 12? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $187 +$11 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? Jun 19 $155 +$31 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$3 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$2 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $130 +$25 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $27 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $115 +$9 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $37 −$36 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $138 +$16 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $107 +$30 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $87 +$20 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $75 +$12 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $58 +$7 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $41 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $37 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $28 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $23 +$8 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $25 +$8 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 4? Jun 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $32 +$17 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 27? May 27 $37 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 26? May 27 $28 +$21 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 17? May 21 $128 +$12 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 15? May 18 $73 −$7 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 17? May 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 17? May 17 $14 +$5 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 16m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 19? BUY Yes 89¢ $194 22m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $197 22m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 19? BUY Yes 93¢ $187 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $186 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? BUY Yes 83¢ $146 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 96¢ $34 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $30 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 80¢ $59 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 80¢ $9 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.06 · official $197.46 · 638 history records