Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5F 0x5f2c…fdba world 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$328 (+6%) realized +$307 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate52%32W / 30L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$52
14 days+$11
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$251
other 23% +$69
tech 8% +$118
finance 3% $0
politics 2% −$44
economics 1% −$41
sports 1% −$35
crypto 0% −$4
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.7% -12.8% 50% 25% -2.3%
≤30d 20 -23.1% -30.4% 40% 30% -10.0%
≤90d 62 -15.2% -23.3% 52% 35% -4.2%
all 62 -15.2% -23.3% 52% 35% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 35% -4.2%
10% -30.7% 21% -13.4%
15% -37.4% 18% -21.8%
20% -43.5% 11% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$14 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$421
Realized+$307
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses32 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)62 / 69
History coverage93d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 76¢ 94¢ $158 $194 +$37 (+23%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 95¢ $100 $140 +$40 (+40%)
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? No 8¢ 6¢ $67 $51 −$16 (-23%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Yes 55¢ 1¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 23 $130 +$24 +18%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 23 $20 −$4 -21%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $20 −$4 -20%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $487 +$36 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $30 +$11 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $25 −$6 -24%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 13 $100 −$24 -24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 06 $21 −$18 -86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $216 +$25 +12%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $176 +$67 +38%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 29 $40 −$34 -84%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? May 29 $50 −$24 -47%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? May 28 $7 +$7 +96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 28 $164 +$3 +2%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? May 25 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22? May 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 22 $120 −$4 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 21 $122 +$58 +47%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $90 +$51 +57%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $4 −$4 -97%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $215 +$23 +11%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 09 $1 −$1 -53%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 09 $61 +$8 +12%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 09 $131 +$17 +13%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? May 09 $2 −$2 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 08 $4 +$3 +60%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? May 07 $42 −$20 -48%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 06 $40 −$3 -8%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 02 $70 +$2 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 01 $42 +$24 +57%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? May 01 $6 −$6 -99%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 30 $35 +$5 +13%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Apr 29 $110 +$3 +2%
James Comey arrested by April 29? Apr 29 $405 +$31 +8%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $41 −$40 -98%
James Comey arrested by May 15? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $363 +$42 +12%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 27 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $154 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 45¢ $16 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $16 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $22 8d
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $22 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $87 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 76¢ $41 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $19 9d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $24 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 16d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $68 19d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $400 20d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 24d
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 24d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 25d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $165 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $164 27d
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $0 28d
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $14 28d
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 29d
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $13 29d
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $7 31d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 31d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $13 31d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $9 35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $9 35d
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $100 36d
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22? BUY No 59¢ $41 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $420.89 · official $420.89 (match) · 235 history records