Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:54:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f2c…e2fd sports 96 markets active 4d ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate32%31W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$19
14 days−$119
30 days−$374
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$165
crypto 10% −$128
other 3% −$146
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -62.9% -66.4% 0% 0% -61.8%
≤30d 11 -46.7% -51.8% 9% 9% -42.8%
≤90d 70 -38.5% -44.4% 24% 20% -10.6%
all 96 -27.9% -34.7% 32% 27% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.7% 27% -11.2%
10% -41.0% 24% -19.7%
15% -46.7% 22% -27.5%
20% -51.9% 16% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$50 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses31 / 65
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage98d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $32 −$15 -46%
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $16 −$4 -26%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 28 $230 +$100 +43%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 28 $405 −$126 -31%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 28 $193 −$193 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals - Who wins t May 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 15 $33 −$27 -82%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad - Who win May 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $597 −$597 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 11 $31 −$10 -32%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals - Who wins the t May 11 $31 +$77 +250%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 11 $13 −$13 -99%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $273 +$176 +64%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians - May 10 $198 +$198 +100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $427 −$427 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $99 +$50 +50%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $213 −$209 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 06 $22 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 02 $195 −$195 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 01 $306 +$713 +233%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 29 $157 +$158 +101%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 26 $561 −$533 -95%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Gujarat Titans Apr 26 $200 +$28 +14%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 25 $193 +$77 +40%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Apr 25 $195 +$1,266 +648%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 14 $175 −$151 -86%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 13 $65 −$12 -18%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans Apr 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Knicks vs. Grizzlies Apr 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Bucks vs. Rockets Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Wizards Apr 02 $5 $0 +9%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Delhi Capitals Apr 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 26 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 25 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 25 $3 +$3 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Mavericks vs. Hawks Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 4d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 4d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 5d
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 6d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 7d
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 441 history records