Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:47:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5F
0x5f2a…0e85
world · 80 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$11 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses29 / 48
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)77 / 80
History coverage514d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 3 History 77 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$8
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 84¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 18¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+175%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? No 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $36 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $179 −$2 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $144 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $162 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $42 +$4 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $139 +$2 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 +8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $56 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $122 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $72 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $22 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $17 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $55 +$5 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $51 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $26 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $93 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $10 $0 -3%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $149 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $3 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $48 $0 -1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $81 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $2 $0 -10%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $82 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $2 $0 -7%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $87 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $26 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $48 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $71 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $22 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $44 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 17 $3 +$1 +17%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $47 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 12 $17 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 43% +$12
other 24% −$2
sports 13% −$7
politics 8% +$1
economics 7% $0
finance 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $5 8h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $55 8h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $20 12h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $39 12h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $0 41h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 92¢ $42 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 92¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 92¢ $7 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 91¢ $52 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $11 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $25 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $12 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $23 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $23 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $2 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $32 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $58 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $11 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $26 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.8% -8.8% 60% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 30 +0.9% -8.7% 47% 3% -8.9%
≤90d 75 -0.5% -9.9% 39% 5% -9.1%
all 77 -3.0% -12.3% 38% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 5% -9.4%
10% -20.7% 1% -18.1%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.26 · official $1.00 · 426 history records