Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:21:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f25…c297 other 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$888 (+1%) realized +$888 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate19%24W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$889per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,015now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$7
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$49
other 39% +$1,272
sports 16% −$319
economics 1% $0
world 1% +$110
tech 1% −$134
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 62 -0.4% -9.9% 6% 0% -9.8%
all 126 -3.8% -12.9% 19% 11% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 11% -8.8%
10% -21.3% 10% -17.5%
15% -28.9% 9% -25.5%
20% -35.8% 6% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,074) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$11 · ×7.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$1,015
Realized+$888
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses24 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)126 / 128
History coverage135d
Avg bet$889
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $558 $559 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? No 100¢ 99¢ $456 $456 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,136 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $515 +$1 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,202 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,475 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,036 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,086 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2,994 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,105 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,427 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $512 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 03 $375 $0 +0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $215 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,165 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $493 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $3,480 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,250 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,044 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $696 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $991 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $1,633 −$2 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $642 −$135 -21%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,815 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,950 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $4,445 −$4 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,075 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2,122 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,018 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $954 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $1,011 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $950 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $913 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $851 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $794 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $966 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 03 $820 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $1,800 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $456 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $453 5d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $453 5d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $456 5d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $456 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $459 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $459 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $458 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $459 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $558 10d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $409 12d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $410 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $504 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $505 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $502 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $503 13d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $404 14d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $404 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $404 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $404 14d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $524 19d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $524 20d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $517 20d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $517 20d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $414 22d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $414 22d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $417 22d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $418 22d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $587 23d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $587 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,014.85 · official $1,014.85 (match) · 407 history records