Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:34:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5F 0x5f22…aaec other 253 markets active 2h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7,869 (-5%) realized −$7,912 · open +$43
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate68%172W / 80L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$658per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$5,541now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$322
7 days−$322
14 days−$318
30 days−$318
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$6,057
sports 16% −$451
economics 11% −$976
tech 6% +$727
politics 5% −$1,135
world 3% −$43
culture 1% −$10
crypto 1% +$51
weather 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -6.3% -15.3% 0% 0% -15.3%
≤30d 3 +2.7% -7.0% 33% 33% -14.8%
≤90d 8 +5.2% -4.8% 50% 25% -12.5%
all 252 +2.6% -7.2% 68% 45% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 45% -14.0%
10% -16.0% 31% -22.2%
15% -24.1% 21% -29.7%
20% -31.6% 16% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$192 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$5,541
Realized−$7,912
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses172 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)252 / 253
History coverage260d
Avg bet$658
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 252 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $5,498 $5,541 +$43 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 23 $5,089 −$322 -6%
Theo FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jun 09 $100 +$22 +22%
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 09 $234 −$18 -8%
Will Endrick be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad lis May 19 $401 +$22 +6%
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list May 19 $581 +$45 +8%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 12 $885 −$17 -2%
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 02 $127 −$7 -5%
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch? Mar 28 $100 +$27 +27%
Will Backpack launch a token on March 23? Mar 23 $876 +$10 +1%
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? Mar 23 $870 +$6 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 22 $258 +$107 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 20 $456 +$48 +10%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 17 $439 +$17 +4%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $434 +$5 +1%
USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 12 $217 +$34 +16%
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 12 $164 +$332 +202%
Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? Feb 20 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runof Feb 06 $2,657 −$90 -3%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 05 $200 +$212 +106%
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jan 22 $261 −$11 -4%
Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jan 22 $500 −$60 -12%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jan 22 $390 −$22 -6%
Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jan 22 $1,357 −$995 -73%
Makina FDV above $80M one day after launch? Jan 21 $18 +$8 +48%
Paradex FDV above $5B one day after launch? Jan 21 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jan 21 $193 +$14 +7%
Fogo FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jan 18 $373 +$12 +3%
Will Fogo launch a token by March 31 2026? Jan 18 $2,811 +$30 +1%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card by March 31? Jan 09 $1,068 −$737 -69%
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 03 $1,490 −$549 -37%
Will Infinex launch a token by March 31, 2026? Jan 02 $500 $0 +0%
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jan 02 $200 −$7 -3%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting? Jan 02 $4 −$2 -43%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Jan 02 $200 −$2 -1%
Paradex FDV above $10B one day after launch? Jan 02 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Fogo launch a token by September 30 2026? Jan 02 $260 +$1 +0%
Over $60M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 01 $200 +$5 +2%
Over $20M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 01 $200 +$38 +19%
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $157 +$21 +14%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 30 $22,357 +$1,140 +5%
Fogo FDV above $2B one day after launch? Dec 28 $2,011 −$27 -1%
Octra FDV above $200M one day after launch? Dec 27 $10 +$5 +51%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Dec 27 $96 −$3 -3%
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? Dec 27 $155 +$80 +52%
Will Infinex launch a token by June 30, 2026? Dec 27 $736 −$21 -3%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Dec 26 $174 +$8 +5%
Ostium FDV above $2B one day after launch? Dec 26 $114 −$1 -1%
Gensyn FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Dec 26 $38 +$6 +15%
Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch? Dec 26 $30 +$2 +8%
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? Dec 26 $24 −$2 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 94¢ $40 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 94¢ $902 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 93¢ $3,006 1h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 87¢ $3,958 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $168 6d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 84¢ $168 6d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $338 6d
Theo FDV above $700M one day after launch? SELL No 91¢ $122 13d
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 61¢ $216 13d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,056 35d
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list BUY Yes 96¢ $80 35d
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list BUY Yes 95¢ $100 35d
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list BUY Yes 93¢ $100 35d
Will Endrick be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad lis BUY Yes 96¢ $100 35d
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list BUY Yes 93¢ $100 35d
Will Endrick be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad lis BUY Yes 95¢ $200 35d
Will Endrick be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad lis BUY Yes 93¢ $100 35d
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list BUY Yes 90¢ $201 35d
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 83¢ $869 72d
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 73¢ $120 82d
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 77¢ $127 86d
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch? SELL No 73¢ $127 87d
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 85¢ $885 91d
Will Backpack launch a token on March 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $876 92d
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? SELL Yes 99¢ $876 92d
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $870 92d
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No 98¢ $366 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $456 94d
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 96¢ $439 99d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 99¢ $439 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,541.23 · official $5,541.23 (match) · 723 history records